MTN Nigeria awarded N290 million to 1,500 winners in 90 days. That means 87.3 million subscribers got nothing. Is that loyalty?

The mechanic is simple. The economics are not.

The MTN Mega Billion Promo launched in July 2025. The mechanic: dial *900# to opt in, recharge at least N100 before 5PM, and you are entered into a daily live draw at 7PM. Recharge more, earn more points, get more entries. Prizes range from N50,000 daily winners to a N10 million grand prize on Day 90. Over 1,500 people won. Over N290 million was awarded.

From a marketing perspective, the numbers are impressive. The promo trended nationally. Social media was flooded with winner testimonials. MTN's brand visibility spiked across Nigeria. The daily live draw format created appointment viewing. It worked as a media event.

From a loyalty perspective, the numbers tell a different story. MTN Nigeria had 87.3 million subscribers at the end of 2025. 1,500 winners means roughly 0.002% of subscribers received anything. The other 99.998% recharged, hoped, and got nothing. The question is whether that hope translates into sustained behaviour change or just a short-term recharge spike that disappears when the promo ends.

A guaranteed reward model works differently. Every qualifying recharge earns an immediate reward: airtime, data, fuel, groceries. The subscriber feels value every time, not once if they are lucky. The behaviour is reinforced on every transaction, not dependent on a 0.002% chance. And the data from every redemption tells the telco exactly which rewards drive which behaviours in which segments.

MTN Nigeria reported approximately 29% quarterly churn in a Q1 2025 data analysis. That means roughly one in three subscribers disengages every quarter. A promo that excites 1,500 people and ignores 87 million does not address that structural problem. A programme that gives every subscriber a reason to recharge on MTN specifically, every single time, does.

The revenue is real. The retention question is uncomfortable.

MTN Nigeria generated N5.2 trillion in revenue in FY2025, a 55% increase year on year. Subscribers grew 7.9% to 87.3 million. Data users grew to 53.2 million. The business is performing. But subscriber growth in Nigerian telecoms is partly driven by multi-SIM behaviour. Many users carry two or three SIMs and shift usage based on whoever is running the best promo that week.

In this environment, a lucky draw creates a temporary recharge spike on MTN SIMs. When Airtel or Glo runs their own promo next month, the same subscribers shift their primary recharge to that network. The subscriber was never loyal. They were chasing the draw. The cost of N290 million bought attention, not retention.

Compare this to a model where every N100 recharge on MTN instantly delivers N5 of airtime or a small data bonus or a fuel voucher. The subscriber receives value every time. The cost per transaction is small but the cumulative effect is powerful: the MTN SIM becomes the one that always gives something back. In a multi-SIM market, that consistency is worth more than a 0.002% chance at N10 million.

Three questions for telco and FMCG promo teams.

What happens to recharge or purchase behaviour the week after your promo ends?

If volume drops back to pre-promo levels, the promo did not change behaviour. It rented it. The cost of that rental is the entire promo budget. A guaranteed reward programme does not end. It runs continuously, reinforcing the behaviour every day. The cost per transaction is lower and the cumulative effect on retention is measurably higher. Track the 30-day post-promo drop. That number tells you the real cost of the campaign.

How many of your subscribers or customers received any value from your last promotion?

If the answer is less than 1%, you ran a lottery, not a loyalty campaign. The 99%+ who got nothing may have recharged more during the promo, but they also learned that your brand promises big and delivers to almost nobody. Over time, that erodes trust. A model where everyone receives a small guaranteed reward builds the opposite: reliability and consistency. Those are the foundations of actual retention.

Can you prove that your promo budget drove incremental revenue beyond the promo period?

N290 million is a significant spend. If MTN cannot show that the subscribers who participated continued to recharge at higher levels after the promo ended, the ROI is negative. The budget created a 90-day spike and a collection of social media testimonials. That may be worth it as a brand exercise. But if the goal was retention and lifetime value, the measurement needs to extend beyond Day 90. Track cost per retained subscriber at 30, 60, and 90 days post-promo. If that number is higher than the cost of a guaranteed reward programme running continuously, the maths does not work.